BEGINNER GUIDE
MarsEdge Beginner Guide
WHAT IT DOES
MarsEdge is an AI probability board for Polymarket's BTC 5-minute Up/Down market.
Its proprietary AI model analyzes BTC short-term price action, volatility structure, momentum, order-book conditions and market-pricing gaps. It then estimates the probability that the current 5-minute window will close Up or Down.
MarsEdge is not a price chart or a conventional indicator. It is a decision-support system for finding gaps between the model's probability and the market's price.
The board shows:
AI model probabilities for Up and Down
Current Polymarket Up/Down bid and ask prices
Time remaining in the current 5-minute market
Live update status
The core idea: Find situations where the AI model sees a high probability, but the Polymarket price has not fully reflected that advantage.
The core logic in one line
Model probability - ask price = potential edge
Market price ≈ implied probability
For example, an UP ask of 0.72 roughly means the market is pricing Up at a 72% probability.
Model probability = MarsEdge's independent estimate
MODEL UP = 0.88 means the model estimates an 88% chance that the window closes Up.
A larger edge suggests a stronger theoretical advantage
If MODEL UP = 0.88 and UP ask = 0.74, the potential edge is 0.14. That is worth examining more closely.
Three filters beginners should remember
Model probability ≥ 0.85
Below 0.85, 5-minute noise, slippage and short reversals can overwhelm the signal more easily.
Potential edge ≥ 0.10
The model probability should exceed the ask price by at least 10 percentage points.
5-minute move ≥ 0.1%
Very small moves may be noise. Beginners are generally better served by waiting for a clearer move.
Simple beginner filters: Model probability ≥ 0.85 Model probability - ask price ≥ 0.10 Prefer a 5-minute price move ≥ 0.1%
Why prefer model probability above 0.85?
0.55 - 0.70
A weak signal that can be distorted by short-term noise.
0.70 - 0.85
Useful context, but not always a strong enough filter for beginners.
Above 0.85
A higher-confidence range with more directional concentration.
Why require at least a 10% edge?
High probability does not mean good value
If MODEL UP = 0.88 but UP ask = 0.87, the edge is only 0.01. The potential reward may not justify the risk.
Value appears when the model is meaningfully above the market
For example, MODEL UP = 0.88 and UP ask = 0.75 produces a potential edge of 0.13.
Why check the 5-minute price move?
A tiny move may only be noise
When the 5-minute move is small, price may simply be oscillating inside a narrow range without a clean direction.
Beginners can wait for a move above 0.1%
Small moves are easier to erase with a short reversal. Fewer, clearer setups can be preferable to forcing trades in noisy conditions.
Order principle: prefer limits, use market orders carefully
Preferred: use a limit order
Avoid rushing. Placing near the bid may improve your entry price and preserve more of the potential edge.
Example: UP bid / ask = 0.74 / 0.77 MODEL UP = 0.89 Possible approach: Try a limit at 0.74 / 0.75 / 0.76
Consider a market order only in exceptional conditions
The model probability is very high, the potential edge is large, little time remains, the market has not repriced and you understand the risk.
Example: MODEL UP = 0.93 UP ask = 0.76 edge = 0.17 time remaining ≈ 30 seconds
Suggested beginner workflow
1. Check Last Update
Confirm the feed is current before making a decision.
2. Focus on the BTC market
Confirm the current BTC 5-minute window and order book before evaluating a signal.
3. Identify the model's preferred direction
Compare MODEL UP and MODEL DOWN.
4. Focus on probabilities ≥ 0.85
Skip signals below the threshold.
5. Confirm the 5-minute move is meaningful
Beginners can prefer moves of at least 0.1%.
6. Compare the model with the ask
Probability without price is not enough.
7. Examine only edges ≥ 0.10
Skip setups that do not meet the filter.
8. Prefer limit orders
A better entry preserves more of the potential edge.
9. Control position size
The board is a filtering tool, not a reason to overcommit to every window.
Three practical examples
Example 1: worth examining
BTC MODEL UP = 0.89 UP ask = 0.78 edge = 0.11 time remaining = 75 seconds
Both filters are met: model probability ≥ 0.85 and edge ≥ 0.10. A limit order around 0.75-0.77 may be worth considering.
Example 2: skip
BTC MODEL UP = 0.82 UP ask = 0.73 edge = 0.09
Neither key filter is met. The apparent advantage may not be strong enough.
Example 3: a market order may be considered
BTC MODEL DOWN = 0.94 DOWN ask = 0.75 edge = 0.19 time remaining = 25 seconds spread is narrow
High confidence, a large edge and little time remaining. A limit order may not fill, but using the ask is a more aggressive exception—not the beginner default.
Which market does MarsEdge cover?
BTC 5-minute Up / Down
MarsEdge currently focuses exclusively on BTC, so every signal, price comparison and example refers to the active BTC 5-minute market.
Four common mistakes
1. Buying solely because model probability is high
Always compare the ask. MODEL UP = 0.88 and UP ask = 0.88 does not offer a pricing edge.
2. Trading a tiny edge
An edge of 0.05 can disappear quickly through slippage and noise.
3. Repeatedly crossing the spread
Fast fills can consume your long-run edge. Default priority: limit order before market order.
4. Chasing during the final seconds
The last 5-10 seconds can move too quickly for a manual trader, resulting in a poor entry.
Summary
Use MarsEdge to compare AI model probabilities with Polymarket prices and filter for high-confidence opportunities the market may be underpricing. Beginner defaults: 1. Model probability ≥ 0.85 2. Model probability - ask price ≥ 0.10 3. Prefer a 5-minute move ≥ 0.1% 4. Prefer limit orders 5. Consider market orders only when the edge is unusually large