# MarsEdge Beginner Guide

MarsEdge compares AI model probabilities with Polymarket prices for the BTC 5-minute Up/Down market.

## Core calculation

`model probability - ask price = potential edge`

Example: if MODEL UP is 0.88 and the UP ask is 0.74, the potential edge is 0.14.

## Beginner research filters

1. Prefer a model probability of at least 0.85.
2. Prefer a potential edge of at least 0.10.
3. Prefer a meaningful 5-minute underlying move, such as 0.1% or more.
4. Confirm that the board's Last Update value is current.
5. Confirm the active BTC 5-minute window and order book before evaluating a signal.
6. Prefer limit orders when practical; crossing the spread reduces the potential edge.
7. Control position size and skip weak setups.

These values are educational heuristics, not guarantees or personalized financial advice.

## Why price matters

A high model probability alone does not create value. MODEL UP at 0.88 and UP ask at 0.87 leaves only 0.01 of potential edge before fees, spread, slippage and model error.

## Common mistakes

- Trading solely because the model probability is high.
- Ignoring the ask price and spread.
- Trading a small edge that can disappear through slippage or noise.
- Repeatedly using market orders.
- Chasing during the final seconds of a market window.

## Related resources

- Live board: https://marsedge.vip/
- Full HTML tutorial: https://marsedge.vip/tutorial
- API documentation: https://marsedge.vip/api-docs.md